Monday, January 4, 2010

Anecdotal evidence and global warming

As someone who endeavors, probably in vain, as I am, like all men, fallible, to be an objective observer in all aspects of human life, particularly when it comes to politics, I understand the concept of anecdotal evidence, particularly when it comes to global warming. For example, in context with what is happening with me at this moment in time, when I walk outside and it's quite a bit cooler than normal, which it is, I know that this is not necessarily evidence that global warming is a fraud, because as many degrees it is cooler than normal here, somewhere else in the world it may be the same amount of degrees warmer. I get it.

AGW alarmists would have you believe that the sun is not the driver of climate, but this is ludicrous. For during the time of greatest warming - around the time between the late 1990's and early this century - the Earth experienced a great deal of warming at the same time the sun was as active as its been in a thousand years. Only a fool or a liar could dismiss that relationship. Conversely, since around 2004, the sun has gone "silent", experiencing a lack of activity never before recorded in history, and sober, sane, and objective observers have remarked that around the same time this change in solar activity occured, the Earth began to cool, until we have arrived to where we are now, with a large part of the world experiencing extreme cold which they've never before encountered (see here and here).

Is this merely anecdotal evidence of global cooling, or incontrovertible proof? I leave it to you.

    Bloomberg -

    Cold, windy weather enveloping the U.S. from the northern Plains to the East Coast may continue to break temperature records today. In south Florida, orange growers may escape most crop damage.

    The National Weather Service issued hard-freeze warnings for last night and this morning for southern Alabama and Georgia and the northern part of Florida, including the panhandle. Such warnings alert growers of temperatures that may fall below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (zero Celsius) for more than three consecutive hours.

    A low of 20 degrees was forecast for Jacksonville, Florida, overnight, which would break the existing record of 22 degrees, said Dave Samuhel, a meteorologist for Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. Typical temperatures for Jacksonville this time of year are 42 degrees, he said.

    In Florida, citrus-growers will likely avoid major crop damage since below-freezing temperatures wouldn’t last long enough, Samuhel said.

    “I don’t expect widespread damage,” he said.

    The next few weeks will be key to the outlook for agriculture, said Bobby Barden, president of the Sebring, Florida-based Highlands County Citrus Growers Association, in a telephone interview.

    Next Weekend

    A cold blast expected next weekend “is supposed to be stronger” than the current weather pattern, Jack Scoville, a Price Group Inc. vice president in Chicago, said in an e-mail yesterday.

    Orange-juice futures on Dec. 31 fell the most in four months on speculation that the freezing weather forecast for this week for many parts of the U.S. won’t damage Florida’s citrus crop. Orange juice rose 90 percent last year on bets the harvest would decline in the state, the world’s second-largest orange grower.

    The futures for March delivery tumbled 7.85 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $1.2905 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since Aug. 14. The price gained 51 percent since the end of 1999.

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture last month estimated that Florida’s orange crop will be 0.7 percent smaller than earlier forecast because adverse weather reduced fruit size. Brazil is the world’s biggest orange producer.